A recent report from energy research firm Wood Mackenzie unveils a formidable forecast, predicting that China is poised to control over 80% of the world’s solar manufacturing capacity until 2026. This revelation comes at a time when nations like the United States and India are fervently subsidizing their solar production, aiming to lessen dependence on Chinese-made goods for achieving their clean energy objectives.
China’s robust investment of over $130 billion into its solar industry in the current year is a testament to its commitment. The analysis indicates that, by 2024, China will activate more than a terrawatt of solar wafer, cell, and panel capacity, a monumental leap that is anticipated to meet the global demand for the next decade, extending through 2032. This aggressive capacity expansion has significantly slashed solar panel prices this year and sparked apprehension among U.S. producers reliant on a government-backed domestic manufacturing surge.
Wood Mackenzie highlights that, despite the United States and India jointly unveiling plans for over 200 gigawatts of module capacity since 2022, China is projected to maintain its dominance in the global solar supply chain. Huaiyan Sun, the report’s author, emphasized, “Despite strong government initiatives for developing local manufacturing in overseas markets, China will still dominate the global solar supply chain and continue to widen the technology and cost gap with competitors.”
As the global solar landscape undergoes transformative shifts, concerns about reliance on Chinese solar products and the widening technology gap persist, creating a complex dynamic in the pursuit of sustainable and clean energy goals on a global scale.
