Despite President Donald Trump’s claims of “obliterating” Iran’s nuclear program, a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment suggests the recent American airstrikes on Iran’s uranium enrichment sites have only delayed, not dismantled, Tehran’s nuclear capability. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded that Iran’s underground infrastructure largely withstood the U.S. bombing campaign, setting the program back by mere months, not years.
This comes as a fragile ceasefire brokered by Trump between Israel and Iran took tenuous hold following nearly two weeks of open warfare. Both countries eased civilian restrictions and reopened airspace after 12 days of conflict, marking a temporary halt to hostilities. However, skepticism lingers over whether the truce will last, especially given mutual accusations of violating its terms.

The war reached its peak when the United States joined Israel in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, deploying 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs. Trump initially celebrated the mission, claiming it had destroyed Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. But the DIA’s internal review, as reported by sources familiar with the findings, contradicted that assertion. According to the agency, Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium remain, and centrifuge arrays at key sites such as Fordow appear to have survived. The strikes reportedly sealed some facility entrances without collapsing underground chambers.
The White House disputed the assessment, calling it “flat out wrong,” while simultaneously tempering its rhetoric by saying the mission had merely “degraded” Iran’s capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran has insisted that its nuclear pursuits are strictly civilian, rejecting any intent to build weapons.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the campaign as a defensive success, stating it had removed “two existential threats,” nuclear annihilation and missile saturation, while vowing to prevent Iran from rearming. In contrast, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared a “great victory” and opened the door to diplomacy, signaling a willingness to reconcile with Washington in a message to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The air war began on June 13, when Israel launched a surprise barrage on Iranian nuclear assets, killing top commanders in Tehran’s military hierarchy. Iran responded with massive retaliatory strikes, launching missiles that penetrated Israel’s air defenses and killed 28 people, marking a historic first in terms of scale and reach for Iran’s missile arsenal. Israel reported the loss of 610 lives in Iran and over 4,700 injuries from its precision bombings.
While the military campaigns paused, the political fallout continued. Trump before heading to a NATO summit blasted both countries for violating the ceasefire but took special aim at Israel, his key ally, saying they “don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” He later confirmed that Israel halted further strikes at his request, though conflicting reports from both sides have muddled the ceasefire timeline.
Netanyahu admitted that Israel had bombed a radar installation near Tehran, framing it as retaliation for Iranian aggression after the ceasefire was supposed to start. Tehran, in turn, denied launching any missiles post-agreement and claimed Israel continued to attack for over an hour after the deadline.

Despite the mistrust, both Iran and Israel have publicly committed to respecting the ceasefire, so long as the other side does too. Trump’s ability to mediate the halt, however strained, reaffirms Washington’s influence in Middle East diplomacy, even as doubts emerge over the long-term strategic impact of the strikes.
Israel’s military chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, declared this phase of conflict over but said efforts against Iran and its allies, particularly Hamas in Gaza, would continue. Iran’s military command, meanwhile, warned both the U.S. and Israel to remember the “crushing blows” it had delivered.

Markets reacted positively to the ceasefire, with oil prices falling and global stocks rebounding, as fears of disruption to Gulf oil supplies began to ease. Yet the regional balance remains precarious. The ceasefire, though holding for now, is one misstep away from collapsing. And with Iran’s nuclear infrastructure merely dented, not dismantled, the deeper strategic tensions remain unresolved.