This MIT Professor Says That There Is A 1 In 6 Chance Of Nuclear War


In this era of sophisticated technology, we have seemingly left the threat of nuclear war some decades ago. But do you really think the hazard of nuclear war is completely eliminated? Well, certainly not. Even the recent statement by North Korea regarding the missile launches is also a demonstration that the danger of nuclear war is hanging over our heads, and this MIT professor of physics named “Max Tegmark” has expressed his views regarding the war in the following words:

“Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six.” Hence, according to the professor, the probability of a nuclear war is one in six and that revolves around the supporting framework of “David vs. Goliath”. David specifies Ukraine and Goliath refers to Russia. Therefore, he has demonstrated different consequences of a nuclear war if it happens between Russia and Ukraine.

He suggested that the worst you can imagine can result in the form of “KABOOM”. The professor explained the scenario as, “a major US-Russia nuclear war that might cause nuclear winter and kill most people on Earth.” However, this is only a possibility, not a certainty and there is a long way to go to achieve this plight. Hence, he further said, “‘Kosovo’ & ‘Vietnam’ refer to scenarios where one side wins outright (breakaway succeeds & Goliath is expunged, respectively). ‘Libya,’ ‘Korea’ & ‘Finland’ refer to intermediate outcomes involving simmering war, frozen war, and full peace, respectively.”

In addition to this, the risk model demonstrated by the professor suggested that NATO and Russia both have chances to retaliate against each other; in other words, there’s a probability of 80% that NATO will do a military fight against Russia. On the other hand, Russia is also going to take responsive action and there’s a 70% chance that Russia is fighting against NATO with the help of its military weapons. Similarly, there is a 30% chance that both NATO and Russia will set back and refrain from taking any action against each other.

To that end, still, after the theoretical risk model of Tegmark, we cannot say with any certainty that the nuclear war between these two countries is going to happen in precisely the same way. This is because human nature changes continuously with the prevailing conditions but one thing is a sure shot the threat of nuclear war is still ongoing and is not diminishing from Earth any soon.


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