The era of the “dark factory,” where robots assemble entire vehicles without human labor, is moving from theory to timetable, according to new industry forecasts cited by Automotive News Europe. Analysts say the first fully automated car plant could open in either China or the United States by 2030, marking a decisive shift in how automobiles are designed, built, and staffed.
Gartner and Warburg Research predict that at least one automaker will reach 100 percent assembly automation before the end of the decade. The milestone would represent more than a productivity gain. It would signal the convergence of artificial intelligence, humanoid robotics, and digital manufacturing into a production system that removes nearly all human roles from the assembly line itself.
Pedro Pacheco, vice president of research at Gartner, said several automakers in China and the US are already building manufacturing processes optimized for advanced robotics, including humanoid systems. Warburg Research analyst Fabio Hölscher added that a fully “dark” automotive factory in China by 2030 is not unrealistic given current investment trajectories and deployment speeds.
Mercedes is testing the use of Apollo, a humanoid robot from Apptronik, in production. (MERCEDES-BENZ)
Major manufacturers are already laying the groundwork. Hyundai Motor Group plans to deploy humanoid robots from Boston Dynamics at its Georgia manufacturing complex starting in 2028, with long-term ambitions to scale robot production to 30,000 units annually. Mercedes-Benz has launched pilot programs using humanoid robots from Apptronik at its Berlin plant, initially working alongside human employees.
While most modern auto plants are already highly automated, certain tasks, such as wire harness installation and cabin assembly, still rely heavily on human dexterity. Analysts say full automation will require not only better robots but also changes to vehicle design, including modular wiring systems and alternative body assembly sequences that give robots easier access to interiors.
Consultancies including Accenture and McKinsey estimate that combining robotics, AI, and digital twins could cut production costs and time to market by as much as 50 percent, unlocking tens of billions of dollars in annual value. At the same time, labor organizations warn that automation will intensify skill demands rather than eliminate work entirely, shifting employees into maintenance, AI oversight, logistics, and software roles.
If realized, the first dark factory would redefine manufacturing norms worldwide, forcing competitors to rethink labor models, training systems, and even what it means to build a car in the age of autonomous machines.