The news media paid attention to Asteroid 2024 YR4 because NASA first estimated its 1-in-32 chance to hit Earth during December 2032, which marked the greatest risk ever observed for an asteroid of its dimensions. The recent observations have dramatically minimized the chances of Earth being hit by this asteroid to almost zero. The asteroid shows a greater probability to hit the Moon than Earth.
Scientists discovered 2024 YR4 in December 2024 and believe it ranges in width from 40 to 90 meters (ca. 295 ft to 295 feet). Scientists studied the asteroid’s path after its discovery and determined Earth faced a potential impact during 2032. The probability calculations developed at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) reached 3.1%, which exceeded the official warning threshold of 1%. New observations made on February 19, 2025, adjusted the impact probability figures for Earth down to 0.28%. The asteroid maintains a 1% probability to strike the Moon.
The scientific community initially classified 2024 YR4 as a Torino scale rank 3 object before reclassifying it as a low-risk object. The well-known asteroid 99942 Apophis received a level 4 Torino rating because of its larger dimensions compared to 2024 YR4. The asteroid 2024 YR4 carries a “city-killer” label yet it remains significantly smaller than objects that could devastate Earth.
Scientists will conduct additional orbital analysis of 2024 YR4 when it passes close to Earth again in 2028. NASA’s DART mission success proves that planetary defense methods can possibly divert future threatening space objects. The observation of 2024 YR4 by astronomers will continue as they work to prevent unexpected asteroid encounters.
