Tesla’s recent performance might cause the company to lose its title of the world’s biggest electric-car maker to Volkswagen by 2024, according to new research.
A study by Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that the German giant will double production to more than 2 million battery-powered vehicles in 2024. This number will leave Tesla behind.
Recent surges in the battery costs and limited production capacity mean most other competitors, including Ford and General Motors, are lacking an incentive to catch up as quickly as Volkswagen, the report said.
Volkswagen’s production and sales are concentrated in Europe, and Bloomberg predicts that the company will expand further in China instead of America. US sales made up less than 10% of VW’s total last year, according to its annual report.
Tesla sales in China, where it now makes two models, were likely to suffer as a result, Bloomberg said.
Tesla was an early entrant to the EV revolution and accounted for 75% of all-electric cars sold in the US in the first quarter of 2022, according to Kelly Blue Book. However, now that the market is established, competitors are catching up fast.
Ford has led the charge with its Ford F-150 Lightning, which has received 200,000 orders, while GM is pushing ahead on its next-generation “Ultium” batteries. Volkswagen is also considering of its sports car maker Porsche, which also has an electric model.
Tesla also began shipping cars from its Berlin gigafactory in March, where it aims to produce 500,000 cars annually.
Musk has tried to evade the threat of legacy automotive manufacturers, joking that he was getting “free advertising” from his competitors in a tweet on Friday that highlighted similar marketing strategies among manufacturers.
In an interview on the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley YouTube channel released on Tuesday, Musk said competitors Rivian and Lucid faced bankruptcy if they didn’t cut costs.
