According to a report by industry analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, sales of non-plug-in internal combustion-powered vehicles have been in “permanent decline” since 2017 which was their peak year. this is because the sales of plug-inhybrid and electric vehicles have increased.
“Most importantly, the market is shifting from being driven primarily by policy, to one where organic consumer demand is the most important factor,” lead authors Colin McKerracher and Aleksandra O’Donovan wrote in the Bloomberg NEF report.
In 2025, the global auto industry will sell 20.6 million plug-in vehicles, according to the report. It further stated that fully battery-powered vehicles will make up 75% of plug-in vehicle sales by 2025.
The market share of EVs will not be uniform across countries. They are expected to reach 39% market share in China and Europe by 2025, the report said. Some might add up to 40% to 50% of passenger vehicle sales in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France.
China and Europe will make up 80% of all EV sales globally in 2025, the report predicts, with the US representing just 15% of the world’s EV sales
“Whether that’s an electric Ford F-150 or a Chevy Silverado or a Rivian pickup truck, all of a sudden what you’re gonna see in the next few years is better matching between what consumers in the US want in terms of the size and shape of the vehicles they buy and the supply that’s out there,” said McKerraracher in an interview with CNN Business.
One of the biggest surprises in their research, McKerracher said, was a particularly rapid increase in EV market share in China, which has gone beyond what government requirements had predicted.
“We’ve long speculated that there’s a point where policy stops being the primary driver and really organic demand, consumer demand, takes over,” he said. “And it kind of looks like that’s what’s happening in China.”
Even still, road transport is not on track to be carbon neutral by 2050. The climate crisis will not be averted through EVs only!
“Simply changing out the drivetrain of vehicles may not be the most efficient way to deliver net zero, and a full range of solutions — including more public transit, and active transport options — will be needed,” they wrote.