An asteroid with the potential to devastate a city now carries a 3.1-percent chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, making it the most significant space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting. NASA released the updated probability on Tuesday. Despite the rising odds, experts urge caution rather than panic, emphasizing that additional observations will likely refine the asteroid’s trajectory and lower the risk over time.
First detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, the asteroid—named 2024 YR4—measures between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide. Its composition appears fairly standard, ruling out the possibility of it being an exceptionally dense metal-rich object. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) first raised an alert on January 29 when its impact probability exceeded one percent. Since then, calculations have fluctuated, but the overall trend continues to climb, with the projected impact date currently set for December 22, 2032.
Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, described the situation as “historic,” as it surpasses the previous record set by asteroid Apophis in 2004, which once carried a 2.7 percent risk of hitting Earth in 2029 before further observations ruled out the threat. “This is a very, very rare event,” Moissl said, but reassured that “this is not the dinosaur killer. This is at most dangerous for a city.”
NASA and the global astronomical community are closely tracking 2024 YR4, with the James Webb Space Telescope scheduled to observe it next month. According to Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society, Webb’s capabilities will be critical in refining the asteroid’s trajectory, as 2024 YR4 is currently moving toward Jupiter and won’t make its next close approach until 2028.
If the impact risk were to exceed 10 percent, IAWN would issue a formal warning, prompting the United Nations to advise preparedness measures for potentially affected regions. The asteroid’s potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. However, Moissl stressed that it is far too early for people to consider drastic measures such as relocation.
While not a global catastrophe, an impact from 2024 YR4 would be catastrophic at a local level. Its destructive power stems from its velocity, estimated to reach nearly 40,000 miles per hour upon impact. If it were to enter Earth’s atmosphere, the most probable outcome would be an airburst—an explosion in midair equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, more than 500 times the force of the Hiroshima bomb. If the asteroid is on the larger end of size estimates, a direct surface impact could create a significant crater.
The good news is that there is ample time to take action. NASA’s 2022 DART mission demonstrated that asteroid trajectories can be altered using spacecraft, proving that deflection methods are viable. Other proposed solutions include using lasers to vaporize parts of an asteroid’s surface for thrust, gravitational tug techniques, and nuclear interventions as a last resort.
For now, scientists remain focused on gathering more data to refine predictions and assess whether intervention will be necessary.
