It is possible that the singularity, when machines become smarter than humans, is not far off. While earlier predictions said AGI would arrive by 2060, new progress in LLMs has made the timeline much shorter. AIMultiple, a tech research group, has found that some prominent AI experts now think the singularity could appear in as little as six months.
The study analyzed over 8,500 predictions made by scientists, entrepreneurs, and members of the AI community and found a clear gap. Although many researchers believe AGI will arrive by 2040, entrepreneurs are now more confident and predict it could happen as early as 2030. According to Anthropic’s CEO, humanity might achieve AGI before the year 2025 is over.
The rapid increase in computing power is a major reason for this optimism. Because of Moore’s Law, which predicts a doubling of computing power every 18 months, LLMs are getting closer to thinking like humans. Even if the current hardware reaches its limit, experts think quantum computing could keep AI moving forward.
However, some people are not convinced by the hype. Some argue that the current definition of AGI does not capture the full range of human intelligence, which includes abilities like interpersonal and existential intelligence that machines have not yet developed. Yann LeCun, an AI pioneer, suggests that AGI should be called “advanced machine intelligence” because real human-level understanding could be much more complicated.
Although the exact moment is not known, it is certain that humanity is about to experience a major change. No matter if AGI comes in six months or sixty years, it will have a huge effect on science, society, and civilization. The report points out that these systems can help with discoveries, but they are not the main reason for them. The singularity, if it happens, could be a gradual change, not a sudden burst of intelligence.
