Elon Musk has always been prone to making audacious forecasts, and his recent declaration that he would be placing a wager on Tesla’s autonomous Robotaxi service was no exception. Just a few weeks ago, Musk urged fans to place their bets by saying that it was a “money-making opportunity” to wager on Tesla delivering its promised Robotaxi service by June 2025. But now, those who believed Musk are suffering large losses.
A fan who bet on Tesla’s robotaxi service, which was set to launch by June 30th, lost $50,000. Anyone can place a wager on future events in prediction markets such as Polymarket, and Tesla’s Robotaxi market gained a lot of popularity thanks to Musk’s support. Musk’s zeal made it more alluring even though the market at the time only predicted a 14% chance of Tesla meeting its own deadline. Consequently, there was a spike in trading activity on the market, with over $7 million being wagered on Tesla’s timeline.
The market now estimates that the service has less than 1% of meeting the specific requirements for success, even though Tesla claims to have launched the service on June 22nd. The resolution rules required the service to be completely autonomous, meaning that no human on board could actively control the vehicle. However, during the launch on June 22nd, people were inside the vehicles, prepared to take over in case of an emergency. The service was also limited to invite-only testers, which further excluded it from satisfying the market’s resolution requirements.
Many users are now placing bets on a later deadline after becoming disillusioned with Musk’s optimistic prediction. One user is wagering an additional $27,000 that Tesla will launch the robotaxi service by the end of July. Those who wager against Tesla’s projections may ultimately be better off, considering Musk’s propensity for exaggerating timelines.
