The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier,” is melting at an alarming rate. Recent studies suggest that this giant ice formation could collapse much sooner than expected triggering catastrophic sea-level rise worldwide.
Since 2018, the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) has been exploring the dynamics of Thwaites Glacier through various means, including ice-breaking expeditions and the use of underwater robots. Eric Rignot, a glaciologist working with ITGC, expressed grave concerns about the situation, stating, “I remain very worried that this sector of Antarctica is already in a state of collapse.”
Measuring an astonishing 74,000 square miles, roughly the size of Florida, Thwaites has been steadily retreating for over 80 years. According to Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey, the glacier’s rate of retreat has dramatically accelerated over the past three decades.
“Our findings indicate it is set to retreat further and faster,” Larter noted.
The rapid melting of Thwaites is primarily caused by warm sea water flowing beneath the glacier, which is eroding its foundations. Scientists discovered this during expeditions where they deployed a torpedo-shaped robot named Icefin to the glacier’s grounding line. The robot’s findings revealed that warm water is infiltrating deep crevices in the ice, leading to faster melting, particularly in vulnerable “staircase” formations.
This interaction between the warm water and the glacier is causing a steady retreat, which scientists believe began in the 1940s, possibly due to a powerful El Niño event. The warm water has penetrated up to six miles beneath Thwaites, further accelerating its breakdown.
While researchers are predicting a complete collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next 200 years, the consequences could be devastating much sooner. If the glacier collapses entirely, global sea levels could rise by as much as 10 feet. This would put coastal cities, including Miami in the U.S. and London in the U.K., at immense risk of flooding, threatening millions of lives and homes.
Despite these grim predictions, there is a sliver of hope. Earlier computer models suggested a chain reaction where other ice shelves would also collapse, causing a sudden rise in sea levels. However, recent findings indicate that this scenario may be less likely than previously thought. Yet, as Rignot cautioned, “While progress has been made, we still have deep uncertainty about the future.”
Researchers are working to improve their understanding of how glaciers interact with the Southern Ocean to develop more accurate models for predicting the glacier’s future. But even with these efforts, the outlook remains bleak.
Experts predict that both Thwaites Glacier and the Antarctic Ice Sheet behind it could vanish by the 23rd century, regardless of efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions.