A Falcon 9 rocket launches the Blue Ghost mission on January 15, 2025. Image Courtesy: SpaceX
A discarded upper stage from a Falcon 9 rocket is expected to collide with the Moon this summer, traveling at roughly seven times the speed of sound. Astronomers predict the impact will occur on August 5 at around 2:44 am ET, striking the lunar surface intact due to the Moon’s lack of atmosphere.
The object has been tracked for over a year following a 2025 launch that carried two lunar landers. Researchers are confident about its identity and trajectory after accumulating more than a thousand observations, as reported by Ars Technica.
The rocket stage, measuring nearly 14 meters in length, has remained in orbit after completing its mission. Unlike debris that burns up in Earth’s atmosphere, objects heading toward the Moon face no such resistance. This means the stage will hit the surface at approximately 2.43 kilometers per second, creating a small crater in or near the Einstein Crater region.
Despite the speed and impact, astronomers say the event poses no risk. The Moon’s surface is largely inactive, and there are no nearby human made structures at the expected impact site. Observers on Earth are also unlikely to see the collision, as it is expected to be too faint even for most telescopes.
This is not the first time a rocket stage has been predicted to hit the Moon. A similar case several years ago initially drew attention before being traced back to a Chinese mission rather than a Falcon 9 launch. In this instance, tracking data clearly links the object to the 2025 mission, removing earlier uncertainties seen in past events.
The situation highlights a growing issue in space operations. As missions to the Moon increase, particularly with renewed interest in establishing long term bases near the lunar south pole, the amount of leftover hardware in space is also rising. Without proper disposal planning, more objects could end up on unintended collision paths.
Experts note that avoiding such impacts is technically straightforward. Rocket stages can be redirected into stable solar orbits with minimal additional fuel, preventing future interference with lunar exploration. As launch frequency increases, adopting these measures may become standard practice to reduce risks for upcoming missions.
