The Soviet Venus probe Kosmos 482 has spent more than fifty years in space before scientists predict its uncontrolled return to Earth by 2025. The probe launched on March 31, 1972, from Earth was supposed to reach Venus until its Blok L upper stage malfunctioned and left it orbiting the Earth. The 1,091-pound descent module of Kosmos 482 has spent 53 years in space, and scientists predict it will reenter Earth’s atmosphere during mid-May 2025.
According to satellite tracker Marco Langbroek, the human risk from this event remains low, but it does not reach zero. The lander demonstrates exceptional durability because it was constructed to endure Venus’s harsh environment and could possibly remain intact during reentry. The uncertain solar activity level creating increased atmospheric drag leads to rapid orbital decay of the spacecraft, thus making its impact location unpredictable.
Kosmos 482 experienced an explosion during its launch sequence, which produced four separate fragments that reached New Zealand within days after separation. The main descent module persists in orbiting Earth. The anticipated descent of this space object presents equal dangers to those of a meteorite collision.
The prediction of reentry dates has already occurred before. Russian astronomer Pavel Shubin initially projected the spacecraft to fall between 2023 and 2025, but subsequent analysis confirmed a potential reentry during 2026. Scientists continue monitoring the spacecraft because uncertainties remain about its trajectory.
Kosmos 482 highlights a broader issue: space debris. Earth’s orbit contains approximately 3000 inactive satellites that create additional risks for unexpected spacecraft reentries and orbital collisions. The increasing number of spacecraft in space requires experts to focus on creating safer methods to deorbit satellites that have reached the end of their operational lifetimes.
The descent of Kosmos 482 offers valuable information about spacecraft endurance yet demonstrates that objects launched into space eventually return to Earth in ways that cannot be predicted.
