In a surprising turn early Wednesday morning, Donald Trump emerged as the presumptive winner of the 2024 US presidential election. As he prepares to take office, Trump has outlined plans that could dramatically alter the federal approach to artificial intelligence (AI) and tech policy, potentially dismantling many of the AI regulations established under President Biden’s administration.
One of Trump’s first actions is expected to be the repeal of President Biden’s comprehensive AI Executive Order from October 2023. Biden’s order introduced sweeping regulations to oversee AI development in the US, mandating stricter safety standards and transparency from companies developing AI technologies. A key element of the order was the establishment of the US AI Safety Institute (AISI), tasked with ensuring the safety and security of AI models by requiring companies to disclose their training methodologies and conduct vulnerability tests.
Criticism of Biden’s approach to AI regulation has been pronounced among some conservative lawmakers. Representative Nancy Mace, for instance, voiced concerns that extensive reporting requirements could stifle innovation and slow down technological advances like ChatGPT. Similarly, Senator Ted Cruz argued that Biden’s standards, as set by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), were attempts to enforce “woke” policies under the guise of AI safety.
If Biden’s executive order is repealed, the future of the AISI and other federal regulatory programs for AI is unclear. Trump’s tech policy approach leans toward deregulation, aligning with the America First Policy Institute’s desire to “Make America First in AI” and foster innovation without strict federal constraints. However, this deregulation focus could spark a patchwork of state-level AI laws if federal guidelines are removed. States like California, Tennessee, and Colorado have already enacted various AI protections, from anti-voice cloning laws to mandates requiring companies to disclose their training methods and deepfake protections.
Beyond AI-specific policies, Trump’s economic measures could also impact AI development. He has proposed a 10 percent tariff on all US imports and a hefty 60 percent tariff on Chinese products, which may affect access to vital components like GPUs, crucial for AI training and development. Further, Trump’s proposal to tighten export controls on AI chips and models to China could have a cascading effect on global AI research and technology sharing. These trade policies could lead to increased costs for AI companies, affecting everything from infrastructure expenses to capital access.
The implications of Trump’s immigration policies on the tech industry are another concern. His plans to restrict H-1B visas may limit the pool of talent available to US-based AI firms, while his commitment to expanding oil and gas development raises questions about environmental impacts and resource allocation for energy-intensive AI training processes.
Another potential change involves the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, which supports domestic semiconductor production. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Trump ally, recently suggested that Republicans “probably will” repeal the CHIPS Act. This could pose a setback for domestic semiconductor manufacturing just as the US works to decrease dependence on foreign chip supplies. However, Johnson later added that streamlining the Act, rather than a full repeal, might be considered—a compromise that could retain some support for semiconductor manufacturing while trimming regulatory provisions.
Influential figures in the tech industry, like Elon Musk, may also shape Trump’s policies. Musk’s political action committee, which contributed heavily to Trump’s campaign, signals a potential ally within the administration. As Musk’s AI venture, xAI, and other businesses like Tesla and SpaceX continue to push boundaries in AI and automation, his influence may encourage Trump to take a tech-friendly approach to regulation, particularly in favor of private sector-led AI advancements.
While Trump has spoken about AI’s dangers and high energy demands, he has not outlined a specific federal AI policy beyond broad promises to support “free speech and human flourishing.” The America First Policy Institute has proposed a potential “Manhattan Project” for military AI advancements, suggesting that Trump’s administration could focus on defense-related AI initiatives, deregulating civilian AI development to let the private sector lead.
During his previous term, Trump signed executive orders prioritizing AI research and development within federal agencies, emphasizing privacy and civil liberties.
However, the AI landscape has evolved with advancements in tools like ChatGPT and image synthesis, suggesting that Trump’s earlier policies may not fully indicate his future direction on the topic.