A chart circulating on social media has been dubbed the “scariest chart in the world,” showing a sharp divide between the labor market and Wall Street. Since ChatGPT’s release in November 2022, the S&P 500 has surged more than 70 percent, while job openings have dropped by around 30 percent. The contrast has sparked a fierce debate about whether artificial intelligence is reshaping the economy or simply exposing deeper issues already at play.
The numbers are accurate. Job openings reached a record 11.5 million in March 2022, the highest ever recorded in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. By August 2025, that figure had dropped to just over 7 million. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 climbed from roughly 3,800 to nearly 6,700, a gain of about 74 percent. Journalist Derek Thompson, writing in his Substack, noted that such a split is historically unprecedented. Job openings and stock prices have almost always moved together.
Thompson argues that the main cause is not AI but the Federal Reserve. The Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022 to cool inflation, making borrowing more expensive for businesses. Over 11 rate hikes followed, slowing investments and construction while suppressing hiring. By 2025, the Fed started cutting rates again to prevent further economic slowdown, but the labor market remained weaker than before.
Trade policy and immigration enforcement have added to the problem. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and immigration restrictions have increased costs and shrunk the available labor pool. A study by the National Foundation for American Policy estimated that the immigration policies could cut the U.S. workforce by 15 million people over the next decade and reduce annual growth by nearly one-third.
Still, many point to AI as the culprit. But when economist Preston Mui at Employ America examined data by sector, he found that the “Information” industry, which includes tech and AI workers, had the smallest decline in job openings. The biggest drops were in manufacturing, construction, and energy, all of which rely heavily on capital investment and were hit hard by higher interest rates and tariffs.
At the same time, AI-related companies have driven an enormous stock market boom. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta together account for the majority of recent gains. According to JPMorgan, AI stocks generated around 75 percent of the S&P 500’s returns since 2022, creating nearly five trillion dollars in wealth for U.S. households. But this has led to concerns about market concentration, with just seven companies making up more than a third of the index.
There is some evidence that AI is affecting certain workers. A Stanford University study found that employees aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations saw a 13 percent decline in employment compared to those in other fields. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics still expects many AI-related jobs to grow faster than average over the next decade. Software development roles, for instance, are projected to grow nearly 18 percent by 2033.
Thompson concludes that the chart highlights a deeper divide in the economy. On one side is a booming AI-driven financial sector; on the other is a slower, rate-strained real economy. The two may eventually reconnect, but for now, the “scariest chart in the world” shows a future where investors thrive while workers wait for the catch-up.