The likelihood of a huge asteroid named Apophis striking Earth in 2029 has increased, but don’t panic just yet. A recent study that was published in The Planetary Science Journal indicates that there is a remote possibility that this 1,100-foot space rock would collide with Earth, despite initial predictions that it will pass harmlessly by.
There isn’t any urgent reason to be concerned because the likelihood of a catastrophic impact is still less than one in a billion. It is still unnerving, though, to go from a zero to a low chance of impact. Apophis, named for the Chaos god of ancient Egypt, is not big enough to wipe out human civilization, but it might completely destroy a city.
Astronomer Paul Wiegert of Canada’s Western University, who led the study, emphasizes that Apophis isn’t currently on a collision course with Earth. It is expected to pass within several Earth radii of our planet on April 13, 2029 close enough to be between Earth and the Moon, but not close enough to hit us.
What’s new is the potential for Apophis’s trajectory to shift if it collides with another object, like a smaller asteroid. Wiegert’s earlier research suggested the chance of such an interaction was negligible. However, recent findings indicate that Apophis could encounter tiny asteroids too small for current detection. If one of these objects, just eleven feet across, were to collide with Apophis, it could alter its path to a collision course with Earth in 2029.
Even smaller impacts, such as from an object just two feet wide, could potentially set Apophis on a collision course for later years, like 2036 or 2068. Despite these possibilities, Wiegert calculates the likelihood of a significant trajectory change as less than one in two billion.
Apophis is currently too dim for observation, but astronomers hope that by 2027, when it will be visible again, they can definitively rule out any risk or confirm a potential threat. For now, it’s a waiting game as scientists continue to monitor this cosmic wildcard.