When Tesla’s board of directors approved what it called a “Mars-shot” executive pay package for Elon Musk in September, it promised investors that the CEO would need to achieve near-impossible feats from transforming robotics and autonomy to doubling Tesla’s market value to earn up to $878 billion in stock over the next decade.
But according to a detailed Reuters analysis and insights from more than a dozen experts in executive compensation, robotics, and corporate governance, many of the targets underpinning Musk’s historic deal may be far easier to achieve than advertised. The findings suggest that Musk could collect tens of billions of dollars in stock even without revolutionizing Tesla or delivering on its most ambitious technological promises.
Under the proposal, Musk could earn over $50 billion by meeting a handful of what analysts describe as “low-bar” goals. Even achieving just two of the simplest milestones, paired with modest growth in Tesla’s market value, could net him $26 billion more than the combined lifetime pay of eight of the world’s highest-paid CEOs, including Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Larry Ellison, and Jensen Huang.
The board justified the massive package by saying Musk would receive “zero” unless he “completely transforms Tesla and society as we know it.”
However, experts told Reuters that vague and loosely defined benchmarks particularly in Tesla’s vehicle sales, robotics, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) programs could make it easier for Musk to unlock portions of the payout without delivering groundbreaking innovation.
Several automotive analysts described Musk’s vehicle sales goals as “exceptionally easy.” If Tesla sells an average of 1.2 million cars per year through 2035 fewer than it sold in 2024 Musk could still earn $8.2 billion in stock, provided the company’s valuation rises from $1.4 trillion to $2 trillion, a growth rate below long-term market averages.
Meanwhile, Tesla recently announced cheaper versions of its Model 3 and Model Y to boost sales amid growing competition from Chinese EV manufacturers like BYD.
Three other product-development milestones, experts say, are so vaguely worded that they could grant Musk substantial payouts even without major advances in technology or profitability.
One of Musk’s key performance goals involves achieving 10 million subscriptions to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, even though the system still requires driver supervision. The target doesn’t require the software to reach full autonomy, instead referring to an “advanced driving system” — a term that “has no industry-standard definition,” according to William Widen, a University of Miami law professor specializing in autonomous driving.
Experts noted that Musk could hit this goal by simply lowering FSD’s price (currently $8,000 upfront or $99 per month) especially since rivals like BYD already offer similar features for free.
Another milestone calls for one million robotaxis in commercial operation, with the caveat that cars operate “without a human driver in the vehicle.” Four industry specialists said the clause could still permit remote or passenger-seat human oversight, much like Tesla’s current pilot program in Austin, Texas.
Musk’s robotics goal is equally ambiguous: to produce one million “bots,” defined broadly as “any robot or other physical product with mobility using AI.”
“It’s a totally vague formulation,” said Christian Rokseth, an analyst at Humanoid.guide. “Investors are expecting humanoid robots, but the goal could technically include much simpler devices.”
The toughest milestones involve profitability, which allows no room for interpretation. The plan sets eight profit goals ranging from $50 billion to $400 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), a massive leap from Tesla’s $16.6 billion in 2024.
With the company’s electric vehicle sales slowing, aging product lineup, and Cybertruck’s disappointing launch, analysts doubt Tesla can reach the higher end of those earnings targets anytime soon.
Yet Musk’s pay structure grants him the same 1% stock payout for achieving easier sales or subscription targets as for meeting profit benchmarks meaning he can still earn billions without driving comparable financial performance.
Tesla’s board also linked Musk’s stock awards to market valuation milestones between $2 trillion and $8.5 trillion. Analysts note that hitting the lower end of that range could be surprisingly achievable: a mere 6.4% annual share growth over a decade would push Tesla to $2 trillion slower than the historical average of the S&P 500.
“Tesla’s valuation could easily hit $3 trillion or more with market-average performance,” said Seth Goldstein, an analyst at Morningstar. “But for Musk to justify the biggest payouts, we’ll need to see real products.”
Critics argue that Tesla’s board has granted Musk excessive control by making the company’s future so dependent on his leadership. “The board has given Musk a monopoly on the CEO position,” said Wei Jiang, vice dean at Emory University’s business school. “Good governance requires competition and flexibility in leadership.”
The board insists the deal aligns with shareholder interests, stating that the package is “worth zero unless the company nearly doubles in value and meets operational milestones.”
Musk, however, described the plan differently. On his platform X, he said the proposal was “not about compensation, but about influence” specifically, ensuring he maintains control over Tesla as it builds millions of robots.