A team of leading climate scientists has issued a warning, stating that many of Earth’s “vital signs” have reached record-breaking extremes. This alarming trend signals that “the future of humanity hangs in the balance,” as global environmental indicators worsen and the threat of societal collapse grows ever more real.
Their comprehensive report, which assesses 35 critical climate factors, reveals that 25 have deteriorated to unprecedented levels, including carbon dioxide concentrations and population growth.
According to the report published in the journal Bioscience, Earth’s surface and ocean temperatures hit all-time highs in 2023, largely due to the relentless burning of fossil fuels. The human population continues to grow by approximately 200,000 people per day, while livestock numbers swell by 170,000 daily, contributing to record levels of greenhouse gas emissions. This combination of factors is ushering in a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis,” the scientists say.
The report also identifies 28 feedback loops, such as increased emissions from thawing permafrost, which could trigger dangerous tipping points like the potential collapse of the Greenland ice sheet. The scientists point to the severe consequences of global heating, which is fueling extreme weather events worldwide. Hurricanes in the U.S. and intense heatwaves in India, where temperatures have reached 50°C, are just some examples of how billions of people are now exposed to life-threatening heat conditions.
“We’re already in the midst of abrupt climate upheaval, which jeopardizes life on Earth like nothing humans have ever seen,” said Professor William Ripple of Oregon State University (OSU), co-leader of the research team. Ripple further warned of “ecological overshoot”—the phenomenon of humanity consuming more resources than the Earth can sustainably provide—which has pushed the planet into perilous climatic conditions, more dangerous than any seen before.
Climate change has already displaced millions of people, and according to Ripple, there is potential for hundreds of millions or even billions to be displaced in the future, leading to global instability and potentially partial societal collapse.
The report highlights record concentrations of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere, with methane being 80 times more potent than CO2 over a 20-year period. “The growth rate of methane emissions has been accelerating, which is extremely troubling,” said Dr. Christopher Wolf, formerly of OSU and a co-leader of the study.
Despite a 15% increase in wind and solar energy generation in 2023, fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—still dominate the energy landscape. The scientists note “stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel-based system,” impeding significant progress in reducing emissions.
In a related survey of climate experts conducted by The Guardian, only 6% of respondents believed the internationally agreed limit of 1.5°C warming would be maintained. “Avoiding every tenth of a degree of warming is critically important,” the researchers emphasized. “Each tenth places an extra 100 million people into unprecedented hot average temperatures.”
The study goes on to explain that global warming is part of a broader crisis that includes pollution, habitat destruction, and rising inequality. “Climate change is a glaring symptom of a deeper systemic issue: ecological overshoot,” the report states.
The possibility of societal collapse is increasingly being studied by scientists as the likelihood of climate-related catastrophes rises.
To combat these escalating threats, the researchers propose several policies, including reducing human population growth through education and women’s rights, rewilding ecosystems, and incorporating climate change education into global curriculums to spur collective action.
“Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance,” the authors said.
As the world prepares for the upcoming UN Cop29 climate summit in Azerbaijan this November, Ripple stressed, “It’s imperative that huge progress is made.”
