China is on track to install more solar power capacity than coal for the first time, a milestone that signals a dramatic turning point for the world’s largest energy consumer and its fast accelerating shift toward renewables.
The forecast comes from the China Electricity Council, which says solar installations this year are expected to edge past the country’s massive fleet of coal plants. For decades, coal has dominated China’s grid, powering factories, cities, and heavy industry. Now, sunlight is poised to take the lead.
It is not just solar driving the change. Combined wind and solar capacity is projected to account for half of China’s total power generation capacity by the end of 2026. That would represent an astonishing rise for technologies that were once considered supplementary rather than central to the grid.
The scale of expansion is hard to overstate. The council expects China to add more than 400 gigawatts of new generation capacity in 2026 alone. More than 300 gigawatts of that will come from new energy sources, primarily wind and solar. To put that in perspective, a single year of additions could exceed the entire installed capacity of many developed countries.
By the end of 2026, China’s total installed power capacity is forecast to reach about 4.3 billion kilowatts. Of that, roughly 2.7 billion kilowatts, or about 63 percent, will come from non fossil sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear. Coal’s share, meanwhile, is expected to shrink to around 31 percent and continue declining.
Much of the push is tied to Beijing’s “dual carbon” goals, which aim to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Massive investments in clean energy manufacturing, grid upgrades, and utility scale solar farms have helped drive costs down and speed up deployment nationwide.
China already dominates global solar supply chains, producing most of the world’s panels and batteries. Now, it appears ready to lead not just in manufacturing but also in actual clean power generation.
If the projections hold, the symbolic moment when solar overtakes coal will mark more than just a statistical shift. It will show that even the world’s biggest coal user can rapidly pivot toward cleaner energy when policy, economics, and technology align.
