By 2030, at least a third of vehicles sold globally are expected to bear the badge of a Chinese brand. According to a report from consulting firm AlixPartners, referenced by Automotive News, China’s market penetration is set to double in Europe and Russia, triple in South and Southeast Asia, and nearly quadruple in the Middle East and Africa. In North America, Chinese brands will command 20% of the Mexican market.
However, the U.S. market faces challenges due to trade policies and tariffs aimed at protecting domestic production. These barriers, though significant, are seen as temporary measures. Chinese automakers are strategically planning to establish manufacturing facilities outside their home base, including battery-electric vehicle production and assembly plants in Mexico for brands like BYD, Chery, and Great Wall. Additionally, BYD and Great Wall are set to expand production to Brazil and Europe, while Chery, Geely, LeapMotor, and SAIC MG plan to build facilities in Europe.
Increased local production and free trade are two ways that the United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA), which took the role of NAFTA in 2020, seeks to support regional firms. Previous tariffs might no longer matter if “Made in Mexico” badges replace “Made in China” ones. Customers might still be concerned, though, given China’s past with forced labor and environmental problems.
Despite these concerns, the appeal of affordable Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) could sway new-car buyers. For instance, a brand-new BYD Seagull EV costs less than $11,000, compared to the U.S. EV average of over $50,000. Government subsidies enable Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to offer these competitive prices. As living costs rise, consumers may prioritize financial freedom and value over higher-priced options.
Ultimately, if Chinese automakers establish production in North America, they will need to adhere to local labor laws, ensuring fair working conditions. This expansion could introduce more competition, offering consumers greater choice and affordability in the car market. The rapid approach of 2030 brings both challenges and opportunities, potentially reshaping the global automotive landscape.
