China has greenlit the construction of what is poised to become the world’s largest hydropower dam, located along the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. Expected to generate three times the energy of the Three Gorges Dam, the project has ignited debates over its environmental and social impacts, particularly downstream in India and Bangladesh.
The Yarlung Tsangpo, winding through the world’s deepest canyon, offers immense potential for renewable energy generation. Chinese state media has described the dam as a project that emphasizes ecological protection while contributing to Beijing’s climate neutrality goals and boosting regional prosperity. However, human rights groups and experts have flagged significant concerns, from displacement of Tibetan communities to ecological disruption in one of the world’s most biodiverse regions.
The Tibetan Plateau has long been a contentious region under Beijing’s control since its annexation in the 1950s. Hydropower projects in the area have sparked tensions, with activists criticizing them as tools for exploiting Tibet’s resources and displacing its people. Earlier this year, protests against another hydropower project, the Gangtuo dam, culminated in arrests, beatings, and reports of serious injuries. The project displaced villages and submerged ancient monasteries, although Chinese authorities claimed to have relocated and compensated the affected population.
For the Yarlung Tsangpo dam, the scale of displacement remains undisclosed. Historical comparisons are sobering: the Three Gorges Dam required the resettlement of 1.4 million people. Construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo dam involves drilling at least four 20-kilometer-long tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountain to divert the river’s flow, a feat as ambitious as it is risky. The site lies on an earthquake-prone tectonic boundary, raising fears of landslides and other geological risks.
Beyond local concerns, the dam’s potential impact on downstream countries, particularly India and Bangladesh, has sparked geopolitical anxiety. The Yarlung Tsangpo flows south into India’s Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states before reaching Bangladesh. Experts warn that controlling or diverting the river could give China leverage over water resources vital to these regions. A 2020 Lowy Institute report underscored that such control could act as a “chokehold on India’s economy.” In response, India has considered building its large hydropower projects to counter the potential effects of China’s dam.
While Chinese officials maintain that the dam is a legitimate right and claim to have accounted for downstream impacts, skepticism abounds. Environmentalists argue that the project risks irreversible damage to the fragile ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, concerns over the dam’s astronomical costs, estimated at one trillion yuan ($127 billion), and the engineering challenges posed by the region’s steep terrain and frequent seismic activity cast further doubt on its feasibility.
China’s ambition to harness Yarlung Tsangpo’s hydropower potential reflects its drive to expand renewable energy capacity and solidify control over Tibet’s resources. However, the project also underscores the complexities of balancing development, environmental stewardship, and regional stability. As the dam’s construction progresses, it will undoubtedly shape not just the Tibetan Plateau’s landscape but also the political and ecological dynamics of South Asia.
